...That we lost out on the world cup
or rather, that we lost out in such abysmal, ridiculous, painful and disgusting fashion
Oh yes, I am - don't get me wrong, I wanted the cup here as much as the next fan, and I even thought we might get it (although I bet on Russia, as is my rule), I was always expecting Russia to win
And so was every self-respecting football fan with an ounce of intelligence - deep down, we all knew that Russia would take it, because we are England, and they are FIFA, that is the natural order of things
For the last few years we have been hoping, even believing, that it was 'our time', that we would finally be allowed to host the biggest competition in the world again
But alas, reality bites - nothing was going to beat that map of world cups and those Russian puppy dog eyes (note: not actual map used), Prince William be damned
So. why am I glad about how we lost?
Well, simply because I think we expected decent support in the voting - we expected for it to go to the wire, sure Russia might win, but we'd lose in heroic fashion and say 'fair cop'
Instead, we get one non-English vote, crash out at the first hurdle with not even a look in, showing complete and utter disrespect from the governing body, cue outrage
It is not hyperbole to say that to be dismissed in such a way is outrageous, because it is - the hopeless, virtually token bid of Belgium/Netherlands received more votes than we did, England didn't simply lose, they were snubbed (as indeed were the greenie Low Countries, and symbolic Iberia)
And it is for that reason I find a little glint of hope - because from this we can no longer simply shrug our shoulders like we do after every penalty shoot-out we lose, this calls for drastic and severe action - FIFA needs reforming and we all bloody know it, I was pretty much brought up understanding that FIFA were corrupt to the core - had we lost by a few votes we'd just take it on the chin, say Russia had a point and sit back down, but now we're all rather pissed off*
Is this typical English 'arrogance' or sour grapes that your usual nay-saying smart-arse will claim? No, I've already said that I thought Russia would win, and I don't take issue with them winning, if anything it's Qatar that is the shining example of the absolute bullshit that comes out of FIFA, my real issue is the fact that clearly the FIFA delegates had decided who they wanted, while the bidders jumped through hoops, very expensive hoops
England did have the best bid, that's not my opinion or arrogance, but the opinion of FIFA inspectors - Russia had the worst of the 2018 bidders, and surprise surprise, Qatar had the worst of both
I've admitted Russia had a case, having never hosted it, but my point is what was the bloody point of spending astronomical amounts of money on technical bids and reports when it counted for absolutely zero? Why does FIFA insist on us saying how good we are when they don't even care and give it to the worst one?
We're supposed to be swaying the opinions of 22 (24) men with this, if they aren't neutral judges then what's even the point - they knew where it was going and let us rave on about how much better we are, we even chose stadiums! All that is worth one vote, we might as well have put Afghanistan forward, there's an illusion of a meritocratic system, but it's clearly non-existent and I for one am grateful, unlike Blatter, that 2022 was decided at the same time, because it seriously showed up the weaknesses/corruption in the hosting selection process, the 2018 decision probably wouldn't have alone
They get our hopes up, pretending to have a fair contest, and in reality a dozen or so men long ago decided to give it to Russia and an oil rich micro-state
Why bother with a voting process? It seems to be completely against what FIFA espouse, and let's face it, they have always decided where to send the cup
2002 was effectively decided by Havelange (he before Blatter) deciding to have an Asian World Cup - there was at least a fair fight, but it was only between two nations and of course, resulted in a co-hosted event (so Sepp was wrong on Thursday when he said there must be losers)
2006 (which was ten years ago in voting terms) was the only time since 1992 to feature an actual open contest, in which Germany snuck through thanks to a Kiwi abstaining
That decision resulted in the frankly ludicrous rotation system which ensured that Blatter's choice for 2006, South Africa, was given 2010
This system was then used once more as it proved convenient to give a tournament to Brazil, who faced no competition, and then it was dropped - the rotation of five continents lasted all of two turns...
And now we have a country that is half the size of Wales, in both area and population, hosting the 2022 cup - there are going to be 'cities' the size of...I can't even think of a famous place small enough for reference - Newmarket? hosting matches with over 40,000 spectators
It wasn't that long ago (about a week actually) that you would be laughed out of town for suggesting a small country could host such a big event - the European championships are deemed too big for Scotland and pretty much all of Europe, yet they give a whole world cup to a desert country the size of Cyprus? Can you imagine Ireland (over six times bigger) bidding? Or how about Kuwait, or Swaziland! The only nations that are smaller are mostly the always overlooked island members of CONCACAF, and the various micro and city-states around the world, invariably the issues of infrastructure and legacy come up
Making my point here? This isn't about new places, arguably there's the middle east angle - but that never seemed to be the agenda, and Saudi and Egypt seem much more sensible choices, Qatar's population of 1.5 million is laughable - how is that bringing football to the people? If it's for the middle east in general it's like playing a European cup in the Vatican, there will be no real home side, it's a bunch of stadiums in a small space for the world to come...actually that would be a good idea, create little zones in regions...
Anyway, do I even need to list the populations of previous hosts? Brazil are about 200 million, South Africa 50, Germany 80, Japan/Korea 180, France 60 and so on and so on, the only host that comes near to this level of anonymity are the first ever hosts - Uruguay, who at least have their own identity and aren't just an oil field full of migrant workers
oh and 2026 has already been earmarked for China supposedly...who knows how they'll decide to make that fit into the rules, a country that is virtually non-existent in the football world...after a country that is virtually non-existent in the football world
Then of course there's the human rights issue - FIFA make great statements about holliganism, racism and the environment - so they pick Russia, who have severe issues with all three, as you may know, and an absolute monarchy, where you can't drink in public, show affection etc, in a desert that will require a dozen fully air conditioned stadiums to be built - go FIFA!...maybe they are bringing gay rights to the Middle East?
So I think we have some right to complain here - and the people who think we're being arrogant really need to understand how this thing works, they are assuming that the meritocratic system that the media for some reason portrayed is true, and that we didn't 'deserve' to win really - nobody ever deserves to win, and this is how it has always been:
Italy were given their second cup in 90, France in 98, Germany in 2006 (so yes, Spain would have been truly a kick in the teeth this time)
The inventors of the game now will have to wait 64 years for a second tournament, longer than any other major power** except Brazil, and I bet Spain will be given the next European one...
In fact, if you look at it from the economic side (which FIFA always do) they are incredibly arrogant on this - by giving it to Russia and making western Europe wait even longer (12 years was already a record European gap) they snub their biggest market for probably 24 years, they act with complete disdain for England, but they are a huge market - not a growth area like Asia, and taken for granted, but still worth mega-bucks, there's a reason western Europe is overrepresented, and Blatter is callous by insisting on moving to expanding markets - Germany was the most lucrative cup in recent years and I would bet it stays that way past 2022
Of course, let's not overlook that Qatar was chosen for it economic situation - not only the oil and gas, but it's position in the world - a mere three hours ahead of GMT, meaning that games can be played at 10 or 11pm at a convenient time for Europe, and with that desert heat in the day...
FIFA gets to move in to the middle east, and Asia in general, while catering to its European cash-cows, thus having its cake and eating it
That's why it's unlikely Australia will ever get it - being both a small, already developed market, geographically isolated, and having a poor position in the world clock means they are a very weak prospect, despite being a great choice for many fans they would simply not offer enough to FIFA, even though I doubt Russia will create much wealth with it's known problems in security and travel, there's probably ample opportunity to line the pockets, and Moscow time isn't too bad
Anson's right, it's not even worth bidding without massive reforms to FIFA, and thankfully I can't see Blatter hanging on past this period of office, either professionally or physically, so maybe we'll have less of the supposedly all-powerful dictator with his crusade to take the tournament to such overlooked and under-appreciated members as Qatar
Was it the media?
No, and frankly anyone who has a whinge about out media exposing the truth should go and live in Russia or Qatar and see how they like it - do you want to live in a world where the media are simply yes men to the mighty FIFA so that they may reward us with a tournament once a century?
We have a free press, that should not count against us, and frankly if that has counted against us I don't want the bloody world cup, if all they want is a free ride from their mates in the media then all their talk of human rights is utter bullshit
We should be exposing their corruption, not condoning it, and the real issue here is that FIFA are totally unaccountable, they have no link to the fans and are isolated from the member associations, like some sort of bastard child of the UN and the EU - I'm glad our media stuck it to them (and so did the Spanish by the way) and they need to keep it up, the only way to make FIFA do anything is to hound people like Blatter out, not pander to him
So how do you reform FIFA?
It's complex, a lot people seem to advocate the IOC method, which opens the ballot to a far bigger electorate - but to be honest that has just as many problems these days, the World Cup is just a bigger event, I don't see how allowing 200 votes in itself would help - you would end up with the Eurovision Song Contest where Russia cajoles all it's little satellites into voting for it, while we get Ireland...if we're lucky
24 is a ridiculously tiny number and it should be expanded - that won't solve many problems, but it's a start, I'll give you a very odd, but true, scenario - Australia were the only bidder without representation on the voting panel (the 'ExCo')
Even England were allowed Geoff Thompson, but Australia were guaranteed no votes - Temarii, who was suspended, would have been a cert, despite not even being from the same confederation anymore, but regardless, to have eight of the nine bids represented by their own national associations is just plain wrong - I wouldn't say it's FIFA's worst aspect, but it shows a lack of consideration in the structure, either give them all a vote or none, like the IOC, don't allow a powerful nation like France or Russia to crush you
And there's a lot to be said for letting all members in, the block voting needs to be worked out, but clearly having some countries represented (like...Qatar) and most others not, affects loyalties and effectively skews the result, at least all members would be fairer, the panel of 24 are clearly only acting in self-interest so there's no point in them - let's face it, if Qatar weren't on that committee would they have had Blatter's ear? It's bizarre to think that Australia and Qatar (and indeed Japan and Korea) are both in the same confederation, and yet one is massively handicapped by it's own representative
Basically the whole system of lobbying individuals needs to be ceased, as does the remarkable executive power of the president, it needs to be a fair fight considering all the options - yes someone has to lose, but to waste countries like England, Australia, Spain, the US and Belgium's time is unforgivable when you give it to the countries with the worst technical and economic outlook, at least say beforehand that you want to give it to a country that needs to build 13 stadiums, rather than ones that already have the infrastructure in place because what was the point in even asking for that information when you wanted the converse??
You could weight or rank the bids, weight the confederations by strength, instead of giving crucial votes to minnows (see: New Zealand), anything to stop an old Swiss man and his cronies getting their own way - hell, give it to some external judges to decide, less people from dodgy organisations with their fingers in all the pies
*None of this means a thing will happen, it's politics after all, but I'm an optimist
**Major power being a country that has done well, and can still host it
Showing posts with label Football. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Football. Show all posts
06 December 2010
19 March 2010
Blatantly Biased Against...United
Following on from the damning (and incredibly robust...) report in the Sun about anti-Conservative bias in the BBC I have unearthed further bias
Just look at this
Why do they focus on the left-leaning French squad and not Fergie's men?
It's a disgrace...
Just look at this
Why do they focus on the left-leaning French squad and not Fergie's men?
It's a disgrace...
04 December 2009
England get off lightly, but aren't French
England were drawn against the US, Algeria and Slovenia
The US were certainly not the easiest pick from pot 2, but we'll have that, we destroyed them a few years ago, and they haven't beaten us since the abysmal Taylor era - the weakest African nation and arguably the weakest European team too - the word describing Capello is currently 'delighted'
England will play their first match on day 2 against the yanks in Rustenburg - exactly where Capello has been looking - it would seem the gods are on our side
Full draw here
Other groups of note
Group A features France getting a right let-off by facing probably the weakest team in the whole thing, but they got Mexico to hopefully present a challenge, unfortunately the opening game will be a rather uninspiring S.Africa vs Mexico, but that was always likely
Group D is not nice for the Ozzies, facing Germany, Serbia and the Ghana - all four good sides, I think all three non-seeds have a chance
Group D would've been the 'group of death' but for group G - featuring Brazil, Portugal and Ivory Coast - last time they got the Argies and the Dutch, now they get the Portuguese axis - North Korea make up the numbers, a toss-up between the Portuguese and Ivorians who meet in their first match is likely I think - my money's on the Africans
I'm not flushed for time so I'll be brief
Most groups went pretty well apart from D and G - Argentina have the chance to throw it away with Korea, Italy and the Netherlands have it easy, Spain will be happy and France are honourary seeds who've probably got it better than us...
The US were certainly not the easiest pick from pot 2, but we'll have that, we destroyed them a few years ago, and they haven't beaten us since the abysmal Taylor era - the weakest African nation and arguably the weakest European team too - the word describing Capello is currently 'delighted'
England will play their first match on day 2 against the yanks in Rustenburg - exactly where Capello has been looking - it would seem the gods are on our side
Full draw here
Other groups of note
Group A features France getting a right let-off by facing probably the weakest team in the whole thing, but they got Mexico to hopefully present a challenge, unfortunately the opening game will be a rather uninspiring S.Africa vs Mexico, but that was always likely
Group D is not nice for the Ozzies, facing Germany, Serbia and the Ghana - all four good sides, I think all three non-seeds have a chance
Group D would've been the 'group of death' but for group G - featuring Brazil, Portugal and Ivory Coast - last time they got the Argies and the Dutch, now they get the Portuguese axis - North Korea make up the numbers, a toss-up between the Portuguese and Ivorians who meet in their first match is likely I think - my money's on the Africans
I'm not flushed for time so I'll be brief
Most groups went pretty well apart from D and G - Argentina have the chance to throw it away with Korea, Italy and the Netherlands have it easy, Spain will be happy and France are honourary seeds who've probably got it better than us...
03 April 2009
No more football
I have created a new blog, under the brilliantly titled 'Tarquin Football' - no more footie cluttering up space on here
"We're so Important"
For one of the biggest days in politics this year, the news is incredibly slow
It goes to show that the mainstream media is very lazy and as long as its given a major story it won't go much further - who knows what the government are up to as we sit here
There are some stories - Shearer at Newcastle being the most interesting if you ask me, I thought it had to be an April fool's joke - especially as the BBC hadn't picked it up a few hours after I initially heard, even when they did I still thought they'd been had - but yes, he is going to the soap opera that is Newcastle, and in this blogger's opinion: thank God - the only thing football pundits are interested in is the big name teams and the title race, or the trials and tribulations of joke clubs like Newcastle and Spurs, so I'm very happy there's some actual news (because focusing on the nitty-gritty of the league would be dull, wouldn't it)
But I don't really want to focus on football again - I have to practice restraint or I'd be at it every day...maybe I'll start a new blog...hmmm
Anyway, the best story I could find was Boris being brilliant in front of a bunch of twattish Labour MPs on a select committee - watch it and make up your own minds, I thought the partisan nature of the committee, who seemed to think Boris could've done something about a foot of snow, was pretty appalling and yet more reason to want the political classes out - Labour's continued party political behaviour, in particular over both the London mayor, and the G20 has frankly disgusted me
It goes to show that the mainstream media is very lazy and as long as its given a major story it won't go much further - who knows what the government are up to as we sit here
There are some stories - Shearer at Newcastle being the most interesting if you ask me, I thought it had to be an April fool's joke - especially as the BBC hadn't picked it up a few hours after I initially heard, even when they did I still thought they'd been had - but yes, he is going to the soap opera that is Newcastle, and in this blogger's opinion: thank God - the only thing football pundits are interested in is the big name teams and the title race, or the trials and tribulations of joke clubs like Newcastle and Spurs, so I'm very happy there's some actual news (because focusing on the nitty-gritty of the league would be dull, wouldn't it)
But I don't really want to focus on football again - I have to practice restraint or I'd be at it every day...maybe I'll start a new blog...hmmm
Anyway, the best story I could find was Boris being brilliant in front of a bunch of twattish Labour MPs on a select committee - watch it and make up your own minds, I thought the partisan nature of the committee, who seemed to think Boris could've done something about a foot of snow, was pretty appalling and yet more reason to want the political classes out - Labour's continued party political behaviour, in particular over both the London mayor, and the G20 has frankly disgusted me
01 April 2009
Never Happy
So England won...just - and yet my confidence has ebbed away - it was not an emphatic victory, but it was against the no.3 team, so the mathematics should give me hope
Still 5 games to go, a 5 point lead - our next games are Kazakhstan away and Andorra at home - Kazakhstan doesn't look too fun but surely Andorra are a guaranteed rout, and the Kazaks have been beaten by both Belarus and Ukraine at home so it should be fine - that will take us to the brink with 21 points and 3 games remaining
and yet I still worry - Croatia and Ukraine are both very good and will keep winning, if they could draw with each other again that would be very useful - I guess my fears are partly based on paranoia, but also a realisation that this group is clearly the best - we all knew Ukraine were the toughest third ranks and should've been in the second pot, so I guess it's not surprising - not dissimilar to Euro 08 qualifying I guess - with us and Russia the two scrapping it out, and us coming off worse (remember watering an artificial pitch?)
But realistically we should be fine - it just feels like there's no room for error, we may well end up with a 6 or more point cushion in the end
Then of course remember that we are probably the third most secure team in qualifying - only the Netherlands and Spain have it better, with the Netherlands only needing a point to secure 1st place, and Spain with a 6 point lead and 6 played
Speaking of the Dutch, we may as well look at Scotland in all its patheticness - as predicted, they got that win over Iceland, which is good - but because this is a small group and it's tight it's very precarious - Scotland have to welcome Macedonia and the Netherlands, and go to Norway - frankly that's only one likely win, and maybe a draw - even if the Dutch aren't really concerned (fortunately that will be their last, and almost certainly pointless, game)
Iceland arguably have it harder - Norway and the Netherlands are coming, and they have to go to Macedonia - I think they'll be lucky to get 3 points, so in actual fact Scotland are looking good for second
The problem lies in the fact that they are currently the lowest ranked of the second place teams - meaning they will be the ones to miss the play-offs - this is a group with very few results, the Netherlands has dominated a bunch of no-hopers, so there's very few points - now I do believe having a smaller group makes it harder - even though the bottom teams won't be counted in the other groups, it has made every game more important
Either way, the Scots, if they make it, will be at the bottom end of that second place table and so need to play all three remaining games like they are cup finals
(One possible chink of light may be the French, who unfortunately did win that double header against Lithuania and now look a bit safer - but only have three games left that will count for the play-offs, that is of course assuming Serbia keep beating everybody else)
Northern Ireland meanwhile produced two home wins, the best of the home nations - so you can't really fault that - but it's a damn tight group and Slovakia managed to beat the Czechs away - not good for NI, who have played an extra two games and face a serious threat from Poland, Slovakia and the Czechs - it's going to be very tight - you've got to say Slovakia are good for the 10 points off 5 they need to be assured of winning, but should NI get those last three wins they should be safe - big ask though (Slovakia at home, Poland and Czech Rep away) - I've got to admit I foresee yet another heartbreak as NI are screwed over by being in one of the toughest groups again
Wales are effectively out - they beat even my tepid prediction and lost to Finland at home, game over there
As for Ireland - well, they didn't make it easy for themselves by drawing with Bulgaria at home, after which I started working out likely scenarios - two wins off Montenegro and Cyprus are in order I think, and that's if Bulgaria win their 'easy' three and lose to Italy - and that will mean Ireland need to avoid defeat in Bulgaria in their next match, and their performance in Italy provided a potentially helpful, and unlikely, point - so it's hopeful
And that's it for the home nations - as for those other games I mentioned - well Spain won both against Turkey to pretty much guarantee qualification (Bosnia with a 4 point lead? seriously), Germany only won 4-0 and still need to watch out for Russia
That Slovak away win could be deadly for NI, Group 2 reamins boring and Portugal actually drew with Sweden! 6 points off five games for the gelled tumblers lot! They now have to go to Denmark and Hungary to have any chance of recouping that 7 point deficit and getting second, let alone first (I'm not getting my hopes up..honest)
France avoided embarrassment and got two 1-0 wins over Lithuania to battle it out with Serbia for the top spot (and they do actually look good for it, Serbia)
Australia meanwhile, beat Uzbekistan to almost be the first team in the World Cup but unfortuantely still need one more match (they are however guarateed a play-off) - will it be the Ozzies or the Dutch? My money is on the Ozzies, due to the time difference - Also the Japanese are also pretty much there - is it just me or has Asia got it a little too easy? Methinks they could do with dropping a berth, it has also taken away any sense of achievement for the Ozzies - they've been trying to big it up as a success like 2006 but it's just too easy to qualify now
I say this in all seriousness - but surely they should be giving even more representation to UEFA? Either increase the amount of teams in the finals, or give an extra one or two spots - take one off the Asians and one off the North Americans, for example - I know it's all about giving a chance to the useless teams from each confederation but do you think Wales ever get so much as a chance? These guys like Costa Rica and Iran are easily comparable to no-hopers in Europe - maybe I am being selfish but in Europe good teams will go out, in North America the US and Mexico are guaranteed, in Asia it's Australia, Japan and Korea, even South America gets useless teams like Ecuador in - European qualification is incredibly difficult compared to the rest.
Europe loses teams like Turkey, Ukraine, Czech Rep, Northern Ireland and possibly even Portugal - Europe struggled in 2008 with 16 berths (notably England) and the only real dead weights were the hosts...and France. Which is why the European championships are being increased - you risk the problem of the Euros becoming more representative than the actual World Cup - I know it seems unfair on the rest of the world - but think about it, we are only in this situation because of fairly arbitrary geographical distinctions - surely we could make it fairer by letting the whole world compete rather than squeeze the best area of football for the sake of everyone else, why not let Asia and Africa compete with Europe, and North with South America?
My two cents
Still 5 games to go, a 5 point lead - our next games are Kazakhstan away and Andorra at home - Kazakhstan doesn't look too fun but surely Andorra are a guaranteed rout, and the Kazaks have been beaten by both Belarus and Ukraine at home so it should be fine - that will take us to the brink with 21 points and 3 games remaining
and yet I still worry - Croatia and Ukraine are both very good and will keep winning, if they could draw with each other again that would be very useful - I guess my fears are partly based on paranoia, but also a realisation that this group is clearly the best - we all knew Ukraine were the toughest third ranks and should've been in the second pot, so I guess it's not surprising - not dissimilar to Euro 08 qualifying I guess - with us and Russia the two scrapping it out, and us coming off worse (remember watering an artificial pitch?)
But realistically we should be fine - it just feels like there's no room for error, we may well end up with a 6 or more point cushion in the end
Then of course remember that we are probably the third most secure team in qualifying - only the Netherlands and Spain have it better, with the Netherlands only needing a point to secure 1st place, and Spain with a 6 point lead and 6 played
Speaking of the Dutch, we may as well look at Scotland in all its patheticness - as predicted, they got that win over Iceland, which is good - but because this is a small group and it's tight it's very precarious - Scotland have to welcome Macedonia and the Netherlands, and go to Norway - frankly that's only one likely win, and maybe a draw - even if the Dutch aren't really concerned (fortunately that will be their last, and almost certainly pointless, game)
Iceland arguably have it harder - Norway and the Netherlands are coming, and they have to go to Macedonia - I think they'll be lucky to get 3 points, so in actual fact Scotland are looking good for second
The problem lies in the fact that they are currently the lowest ranked of the second place teams - meaning they will be the ones to miss the play-offs - this is a group with very few results, the Netherlands has dominated a bunch of no-hopers, so there's very few points - now I do believe having a smaller group makes it harder - even though the bottom teams won't be counted in the other groups, it has made every game more important
Either way, the Scots, if they make it, will be at the bottom end of that second place table and so need to play all three remaining games like they are cup finals
(One possible chink of light may be the French, who unfortunately did win that double header against Lithuania and now look a bit safer - but only have three games left that will count for the play-offs, that is of course assuming Serbia keep beating everybody else)
Northern Ireland meanwhile produced two home wins, the best of the home nations - so you can't really fault that - but it's a damn tight group and Slovakia managed to beat the Czechs away - not good for NI, who have played an extra two games and face a serious threat from Poland, Slovakia and the Czechs - it's going to be very tight - you've got to say Slovakia are good for the 10 points off 5 they need to be assured of winning, but should NI get those last three wins they should be safe - big ask though (Slovakia at home, Poland and Czech Rep away) - I've got to admit I foresee yet another heartbreak as NI are screwed over by being in one of the toughest groups again
Wales are effectively out - they beat even my tepid prediction and lost to Finland at home, game over there
As for Ireland - well, they didn't make it easy for themselves by drawing with Bulgaria at home, after which I started working out likely scenarios - two wins off Montenegro and Cyprus are in order I think, and that's if Bulgaria win their 'easy' three and lose to Italy - and that will mean Ireland need to avoid defeat in Bulgaria in their next match, and their performance in Italy provided a potentially helpful, and unlikely, point - so it's hopeful
And that's it for the home nations - as for those other games I mentioned - well Spain won both against Turkey to pretty much guarantee qualification (Bosnia with a 4 point lead? seriously), Germany only won 4-0 and still need to watch out for Russia
That Slovak away win could be deadly for NI, Group 2 reamins boring and Portugal actually drew with Sweden! 6 points off five games for the gelled tumblers lot! They now have to go to Denmark and Hungary to have any chance of recouping that 7 point deficit and getting second, let alone first (I'm not getting my hopes up..honest)
France avoided embarrassment and got two 1-0 wins over Lithuania to battle it out with Serbia for the top spot (and they do actually look good for it, Serbia)
Australia meanwhile, beat Uzbekistan to almost be the first team in the World Cup but unfortuantely still need one more match (they are however guarateed a play-off) - will it be the Ozzies or the Dutch? My money is on the Ozzies, due to the time difference - Also the Japanese are also pretty much there - is it just me or has Asia got it a little too easy? Methinks they could do with dropping a berth, it has also taken away any sense of achievement for the Ozzies - they've been trying to big it up as a success like 2006 but it's just too easy to qualify now
I say this in all seriousness - but surely they should be giving even more representation to UEFA? Either increase the amount of teams in the finals, or give an extra one or two spots - take one off the Asians and one off the North Americans, for example - I know it's all about giving a chance to the useless teams from each confederation but do you think Wales ever get so much as a chance? These guys like Costa Rica and Iran are easily comparable to no-hopers in Europe - maybe I am being selfish but in Europe good teams will go out, in North America the US and Mexico are guaranteed, in Asia it's Australia, Japan and Korea, even South America gets useless teams like Ecuador in - European qualification is incredibly difficult compared to the rest.
Europe loses teams like Turkey, Ukraine, Czech Rep, Northern Ireland and possibly even Portugal - Europe struggled in 2008 with 16 berths (notably England) and the only real dead weights were the hosts...and France. Which is why the European championships are being increased - you risk the problem of the Euros becoming more representative than the actual World Cup - I know it seems unfair on the rest of the world - but think about it, we are only in this situation because of fairly arbitrary geographical distinctions - surely we could make it fairer by letting the whole world compete rather than squeeze the best area of football for the sake of everyone else, why not let Asia and Africa compete with Europe, and North with South America?
My two cents
27 March 2009
Time to get cocky
It's that time of year again - International Break!
Unfortunately all England get competitively is a home tie against Ukraine after a friendly against Slovakia (who ain't bad) - but the rest of the home nations and most of Europe are playing two real games
Well the Slovakia game should be pretty cut and dry, although they are the top of their group it is somewhat of an average group, and the Czechs are yet to play them - and it's only a friendly so who cares...
As for Ukraine - I'm imagining we'll be entirely focused on that, one single game with the intention of absolute victory - England are one of only three teams with a 100% win record and I expect that to hold up in what is only their second home game - it will surely cement England as at least second place, and the team is mostly fit: game no.5 = win no.5
While we're on Slovakia we might as well look at groupies Northern Ireland, currently second and with a fair chance of qualifying, two home ties against Poland and Slovenia will be crucial indicators of their chances this time round, they may even stand a chance of getting the automatic spot after holding the Czechs at home in this average group (though don't hold your breath, their away form is dire) - I'd go for a draw and a win for their two ties
Wales are next down in group 4 - with the pleasure of Germany and Russia for company, lucky them
Wales are pretty solid, but lack a goal threat - they will need to beat Finland to at least stand a chance, they can't hope for much from the German visit other than a 0-0, but with the two hardest away games done with (and lost) it is at least in their own hands, but I foresee a draw and a defeat, and consequently failure to progress
Then there's Ireland - in a very weak group, with Bulgaria the only real threat to the top two spots - we all know Italy are hardly worthy of their 'world champions' title, but they won't struggle with this group, there's a slim chance Ireland could pip them, but Italy invariably come through - should Ireland beat Bulgaria at home they will be very close to security, the trip to Italy won't mean much, all eyes on Bulgaria methinks - win and a loss
Then last, but not least - Scotland, surely worthy of a play-off place in a group that features Iceland, Norway and Macedonia (talk about mediocre, thank God for the play-off system this time)
The Netherlands are the only big boys and should walk this group, and their 100% record is testament to that. Meanwhile Scotland are not making it easy for themselves, held by Norway at home, losing to Macedonia away (although any England fan can tell you that's no easy game) - the win in Iceland was crucial and the size of this group means each game is more important here. Scotland are going to be flying by the seat of their pants once again I feel, except this time they have to be favourites for second, but it's going to be a hotchpotch group I think, if anything the Scots want the Dutch to win every single game (except against them obviously). I predict a defeat across the North Sea, and a crucial win at home.
All in all it's looking pretty good that we might get more than England into the cup itself, it will probably come down to a case of play-offs but you never know, Ireland and Scotland might draw each other...
In summary:
England v Ukraine
NI v Poland (draw)
NI v Slovenia
Wales v Finland (draw)
Wales v Germany
Ireland v Bulgaria
Italy v Ireland
Netherlands v Scotland
Scotland v Iceland
**Other selected games of interest:
Spain v Turkey, then Turkey v Spain in the space of a week - who drew up that one? These two matches will pretty much decide group 5, unless Belgium cause a shock - you've got to go for the best team in the world for both, or certainly 4 points
Germany v Lichenstein - they beat them 6-0 away, bet on 'other' for this scoreline from a team who regularly thump in goals against minnows
Czech Rep v Slovakia - interesting if you live in Ulster, a Czech win would be preferable
Group 2 is even more mediocre than Group 9
Portugal v Sweden - Portugal's 1 win out of 4 has come courtesy of mighty Malta, anything other than a home win here will really screw them over as Sweden are big threats
Lithuania v France, France v Lithuania - another double header, I'm being highly optimistic about France going out, but this is a crucial pair of games for a seriously pathetic French team. Yes that's right, Serbia, Lithuania, Austria and Romania are giving France serious problems (if you can be anything serious after only 3 games), let's hope France's usual away form provides much amusement - it's a tight group
Australia v Uzbekistan - Over to Asia (?) for this one, Australia should walk it and will be pretty much guaranteed qualification after the frankly bizarre qualification route (two knock out rounds followed by two group rounds, followed by a last-place play-off, then another play-off). Hell, Australia and Japan both pretty much got a bye into the finals. Also, watch out for North Korea - we may well see them or New Zealand actually in the finals.
Unfortunately all England get competitively is a home tie against Ukraine after a friendly against Slovakia (who ain't bad) - but the rest of the home nations and most of Europe are playing two real games
Well the Slovakia game should be pretty cut and dry, although they are the top of their group it is somewhat of an average group, and the Czechs are yet to play them - and it's only a friendly so who cares...
As for Ukraine - I'm imagining we'll be entirely focused on that, one single game with the intention of absolute victory - England are one of only three teams with a 100% win record and I expect that to hold up in what is only their second home game - it will surely cement England as at least second place, and the team is mostly fit: game no.5 = win no.5
While we're on Slovakia we might as well look at groupies Northern Ireland, currently second and with a fair chance of qualifying, two home ties against Poland and Slovenia will be crucial indicators of their chances this time round, they may even stand a chance of getting the automatic spot after holding the Czechs at home in this average group (though don't hold your breath, their away form is dire) - I'd go for a draw and a win for their two ties
Wales are next down in group 4 - with the pleasure of Germany and Russia for company, lucky them
Wales are pretty solid, but lack a goal threat - they will need to beat Finland to at least stand a chance, they can't hope for much from the German visit other than a 0-0, but with the two hardest away games done with (and lost) it is at least in their own hands, but I foresee a draw and a defeat, and consequently failure to progress
Then there's Ireland - in a very weak group, with Bulgaria the only real threat to the top two spots - we all know Italy are hardly worthy of their 'world champions' title, but they won't struggle with this group, there's a slim chance Ireland could pip them, but Italy invariably come through - should Ireland beat Bulgaria at home they will be very close to security, the trip to Italy won't mean much, all eyes on Bulgaria methinks - win and a loss
Then last, but not least - Scotland, surely worthy of a play-off place in a group that features Iceland, Norway and Macedonia (talk about mediocre, thank God for the play-off system this time)
The Netherlands are the only big boys and should walk this group, and their 100% record is testament to that. Meanwhile Scotland are not making it easy for themselves, held by Norway at home, losing to Macedonia away (although any England fan can tell you that's no easy game) - the win in Iceland was crucial and the size of this group means each game is more important here. Scotland are going to be flying by the seat of their pants once again I feel, except this time they have to be favourites for second, but it's going to be a hotchpotch group I think, if anything the Scots want the Dutch to win every single game (except against them obviously). I predict a defeat across the North Sea, and a crucial win at home.
All in all it's looking pretty good that we might get more than England into the cup itself, it will probably come down to a case of play-offs but you never know, Ireland and Scotland might draw each other...
In summary:
England v Ukraine
NI v Poland (draw)
NI v Slovenia
Wales v Finland (draw)
Wales v Germany
Ireland v Bulgaria
Italy v Ireland
Netherlands v Scotland
Scotland v Iceland
**Other selected games of interest:
Spain v Turkey, then Turkey v Spain in the space of a week - who drew up that one? These two matches will pretty much decide group 5, unless Belgium cause a shock - you've got to go for the best team in the world for both, or certainly 4 points
Germany v Lichenstein - they beat them 6-0 away, bet on 'other' for this scoreline from a team who regularly thump in goals against minnows
Czech Rep v Slovakia - interesting if you live in Ulster, a Czech win would be preferable
Group 2 is even more mediocre than Group 9
Portugal v Sweden - Portugal's 1 win out of 4 has come courtesy of mighty Malta, anything other than a home win here will really screw them over as Sweden are big threats
Lithuania v France, France v Lithuania - another double header, I'm being highly optimistic about France going out, but this is a crucial pair of games for a seriously pathetic French team. Yes that's right, Serbia, Lithuania, Austria and Romania are giving France serious problems (if you can be anything serious after only 3 games), let's hope France's usual away form provides much amusement - it's a tight group
Australia v Uzbekistan - Over to Asia (?) for this one, Australia should walk it and will be pretty much guaranteed qualification after the frankly bizarre qualification route (two knock out rounds followed by two group rounds, followed by a last-place play-off, then another play-off). Hell, Australia and Japan both pretty much got a bye into the finals. Also, watch out for North Korea - we may well see them or New Zealand actually in the finals.
23 March 2009
Skill vs Luck
Do you play Fantasy Football? - I do, and I love it
Think me sad all you will, but this year I have a little problem - they have introduced a head-to-head league format, run in conjunction with the normal league format (ie. where your players get points and whoever has more wins)
You are put in a league with 19 other teams and play one per gameweek - whoever 'scores' the most wins the match - sounds great doesn't it?
Well yes, but I have come to realise that it's little more than randomisation
Take my league - I am 7th, 10 points off the top (so I'm Arsenal...yay) - but I have the highest amount of points, ie. goals - well what's wrong with that you may ask? GD doesn't really matter in a league
But it does in this league - remember you are drawn against a team at random each week and whoever scores more wins, so even if you score really highly - you may lose to someone who isn't doing so well but does well one week
Obviously scoring the most pretty much guarantees you will be top ten or so - but winner - no, that is decided by who you play and when - you probably think this is sour grapes on my part, but think about it - you have no control over how much you concede
I have conceded 1385 points - this is in fact the second highest amount conceded (the guy with highest is in 12th with 1461) and guess who has conceded least? - yup, number 1 with 1176
A solid defence is a worthy attribute in football you may say - but that's just it - you have no say in how much your opponent scores - I have conceded the most through no fault of my own, simply when I have played each team has determined what I had to beat
This gives me a moral victory! But regardless it shows that this whole idea is flawed - you have to build a fantasy team to last over a whole season, that's the point of it - the head-to-head system is anathema to this - it requires you to change tactics each week, which you can't do because you only get one transfer per week (without penalties) - some weeks you have to suffer for the long-term glory
You cannot have both in the same system because they work differently - placing your virtually unchangeable squad against a different team each week is essentially creating a random result - obviously if you're useless then you won't do well, but if you do well you aren't guaranteed success
Take my current traditional league - me and the leader are within 5 points of each other - I am second, and have been for a while, but I have clawed back from a bigger deficit - meaning I have 'won' regularly for the past few weeks - looking at weekly results I've won 20, he has won 10 (indicating I'm consistent, and he's erratic) - but he has that five point lead - and that is right, because this game is all about the points - you can't simply translate those points into goals in a 'match'
The head-to-head league is basically whichever of the good teams gets the most favourable draws across the season - it's daft
Think me sad all you will, but this year I have a little problem - they have introduced a head-to-head league format, run in conjunction with the normal league format (ie. where your players get points and whoever has more wins)
You are put in a league with 19 other teams and play one per gameweek - whoever 'scores' the most wins the match - sounds great doesn't it?
Well yes, but I have come to realise that it's little more than randomisation
Take my league - I am 7th, 10 points off the top (so I'm Arsenal...yay) - but I have the highest amount of points, ie. goals - well what's wrong with that you may ask? GD doesn't really matter in a league
But it does in this league - remember you are drawn against a team at random each week and whoever scores more wins, so even if you score really highly - you may lose to someone who isn't doing so well but does well one week
Obviously scoring the most pretty much guarantees you will be top ten or so - but winner - no, that is decided by who you play and when - you probably think this is sour grapes on my part, but think about it - you have no control over how much you concede
I have conceded 1385 points - this is in fact the second highest amount conceded (the guy with highest is in 12th with 1461) and guess who has conceded least? - yup, number 1 with 1176
A solid defence is a worthy attribute in football you may say - but that's just it - you have no say in how much your opponent scores - I have conceded the most through no fault of my own, simply when I have played each team has determined what I had to beat
This gives me a moral victory! But regardless it shows that this whole idea is flawed - you have to build a fantasy team to last over a whole season, that's the point of it - the head-to-head system is anathema to this - it requires you to change tactics each week, which you can't do because you only get one transfer per week (without penalties) - some weeks you have to suffer for the long-term glory
You cannot have both in the same system because they work differently - placing your virtually unchangeable squad against a different team each week is essentially creating a random result - obviously if you're useless then you won't do well, but if you do well you aren't guaranteed success
Take my current traditional league - me and the leader are within 5 points of each other - I am second, and have been for a while, but I have clawed back from a bigger deficit - meaning I have 'won' regularly for the past few weeks - looking at weekly results I've won 20, he has won 10 (indicating I'm consistent, and he's erratic) - but he has that five point lead - and that is right, because this game is all about the points - you can't simply translate those points into goals in a 'match'
The head-to-head league is basically whichever of the good teams gets the most favourable draws across the season - it's daft
Liverpool finally worthy of their position
That'd be second then...
No, being serious now, I mean the fact that they have finally clambered up the ladder to separate themselves from Chelsea and have a higher goal difference (even than United)
Goal difference has always intrigued me for it psychological value - despite the fact it's usually only useful at the bottom of the table, but when Liverpool were sat just a few weeks ago with an inferior goal diff to the mighty United, all hope was lost, but now they have made up about 10 it has given the Reds a massive boost
It's that potential, that IF United can just draw two games - Liverpool would have the upper hand by virtue of their goal difference - when you are facing an enemy higher up and with a better GD it seems like an insurmountable lead, but when you have more goals - they are reachable simply because you can be ahead if you draw level
That reminds me, I am not in agreement with McNulty, no not that McNulty - this one
Poor Phil, is as always leaping to conclusions - he may well be right, but unfortunately he is always bound to be right because he changes his mind every two weeks - unlike Hansen and Shearer who are rather comically pinned to predictions of Chelsea for the league, and Lawro who rather strangely said Stoke would be rock bottom (and yet he remains employed - is he just there so we can laugh at him?)
Yes Liverpool are now contenders - they need United to drop 4 points off 9 games, and there are definitely games where that'll happen, but Liverpool must keep up their form against teams who won't come at them, which is their major weakness
For some reason when United were on their latest winning streak nobody could foresee their downfall - any idiot could tell you that United weren't good enough to broach 90 points across a whole season - they were better last year and couldn't do it, they had to slip up somewhere and what I refer to as the 'holy trinity' of games (Liverpool, Fulham away, and Villa) was the perfect time to do it. Two of the best away sides and one of the most solid home sides against a team due a defeat, it was almost scripted (and this is why I put a tenner on Fulham to win at 7/1)
You may think I was being overly statistical, but football almost always sticks to form - United were due, and teams that are due almost always get their reward, it doesn't matter if United should beat Fulham - injuries, on-pitch incidents and referee errors always balance the universe out in the end - just because United had gone on a massive run doesn't mean they're particularly superior to Liverpool or Chelsea, Liverpool were dominating from August to the new year, it stands to reason that United would drop back after their run as well - take a look at the fixtures and you'll see they've been pretty favourable since january (makes sense if you believe Fergie's whinge at the difficult fixture list early in the season) - then they hit the big boys (yes Fulham are big boys...stop laughing)
This doesn't mean anyone is certain to win - United remain 4/11 favourites, while Liverpool have come back to 3/1 to win the title (they were 16/1 barely a week ago - even I didn't have the balls for that) - but it is a close fight, closer than people realise I think
United have the joy of welcoming Arsenal and Villa, as well as the likes of solid Everton - giving them a harder line-up than Liverpool, who have already drawn with Everton enough times this season - they will have to prove themselves against the likes of West Ham and Blackburn - and for them that is probably the biggest test - no more nil-nils, boys
Oh and as for McNulty's comment about Arsenal, who after a few easy games against Blackburn, Sunderland and Newcastle are now cemented in 4th with a three point lead - 'pillock' is all I can say
Villa are fatigued, he's right about that - they need some depth, but so do Arsenal! that's why they are down there and that's why I said they'd struggle this year, they win a few games while Villa play the two best teams in the country and he thinks 3 points is daylight...
Arsenal have still to play all of the big 3 and don't look like beating any of them (only Chelsea are travelling) - Villa may be tired but Arsenal are not walking this one home and those two are going to scrap it out til the end
oh and finally: shut up, Ferguson
No, being serious now, I mean the fact that they have finally clambered up the ladder to separate themselves from Chelsea and have a higher goal difference (even than United)
Goal difference has always intrigued me for it psychological value - despite the fact it's usually only useful at the bottom of the table, but when Liverpool were sat just a few weeks ago with an inferior goal diff to the mighty United, all hope was lost, but now they have made up about 10 it has given the Reds a massive boost
It's that potential, that IF United can just draw two games - Liverpool would have the upper hand by virtue of their goal difference - when you are facing an enemy higher up and with a better GD it seems like an insurmountable lead, but when you have more goals - they are reachable simply because you can be ahead if you draw level
That reminds me, I am not in agreement with McNulty, no not that McNulty - this one
Poor Phil, is as always leaping to conclusions - he may well be right, but unfortunately he is always bound to be right because he changes his mind every two weeks - unlike Hansen and Shearer who are rather comically pinned to predictions of Chelsea for the league, and Lawro who rather strangely said Stoke would be rock bottom (and yet he remains employed - is he just there so we can laugh at him?)
Yes Liverpool are now contenders - they need United to drop 4 points off 9 games, and there are definitely games where that'll happen, but Liverpool must keep up their form against teams who won't come at them, which is their major weakness
For some reason when United were on their latest winning streak nobody could foresee their downfall - any idiot could tell you that United weren't good enough to broach 90 points across a whole season - they were better last year and couldn't do it, they had to slip up somewhere and what I refer to as the 'holy trinity' of games (Liverpool, Fulham away, and Villa) was the perfect time to do it. Two of the best away sides and one of the most solid home sides against a team due a defeat, it was almost scripted (and this is why I put a tenner on Fulham to win at 7/1)
You may think I was being overly statistical, but football almost always sticks to form - United were due, and teams that are due almost always get their reward, it doesn't matter if United should beat Fulham - injuries, on-pitch incidents and referee errors always balance the universe out in the end - just because United had gone on a massive run doesn't mean they're particularly superior to Liverpool or Chelsea, Liverpool were dominating from August to the new year, it stands to reason that United would drop back after their run as well - take a look at the fixtures and you'll see they've been pretty favourable since january (makes sense if you believe Fergie's whinge at the difficult fixture list early in the season) - then they hit the big boys (yes Fulham are big boys...stop laughing)
This doesn't mean anyone is certain to win - United remain 4/11 favourites, while Liverpool have come back to 3/1 to win the title (they were 16/1 barely a week ago - even I didn't have the balls for that) - but it is a close fight, closer than people realise I think
United have the joy of welcoming Arsenal and Villa, as well as the likes of solid Everton - giving them a harder line-up than Liverpool, who have already drawn with Everton enough times this season - they will have to prove themselves against the likes of West Ham and Blackburn - and for them that is probably the biggest test - no more nil-nils, boys
Oh and as for McNulty's comment about Arsenal, who after a few easy games against Blackburn, Sunderland and Newcastle are now cemented in 4th with a three point lead - 'pillock' is all I can say
Villa are fatigued, he's right about that - they need some depth, but so do Arsenal! that's why they are down there and that's why I said they'd struggle this year, they win a few games while Villa play the two best teams in the country and he thinks 3 points is daylight...
Arsenal have still to play all of the big 3 and don't look like beating any of them (only Chelsea are travelling) - Villa may be tired but Arsenal are not walking this one home and those two are going to scrap it out til the end
oh and finally: shut up, Ferguson
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